RANGE FORECASTING OF AN ENDANGERED ISLAND ENDEMIC BIRD SPECIES
USING ENSEMBLE SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
Isabella Pauline Quijano1,2, Mary Joyce Flores1,2 and Chito Patiño1
ABSTRACT: Habitat and wildlife conservation is becoming more difficult to practice due to increasing human population growth, environmental degradation, and climate change. Fortunately, emerging developments in species mapping have become valuable conservation tools in predicting biological diversity trends and identifying important conservation areas. This study aimed to map the present and future distributions of an endangered endemic bird considered as Cebu Island’s flagship species, the black shama (Copsychus cebuensis). Since the black shama’s survival is constantly threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation, exacerbated by climate change, consensus range forecasting might help us better understand the suitability of different habitat zones for this endangered species. We developed species distribution models for the black shama which were projected in the current and future scenarios. Future projections were modeled from two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, with RCP 4.5 as the ‘best-case scenario’ and 8.5 as the ‘worst-case scenario’. Land cover correction was also considered for the future scenarios to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Results showed localized extirpations of the species in the future scenarios with the remaining species populations concentrated near the key biodiversity areas. Future projections also exhibited an inclination of the species towards the south of the island, and occupying a lesser land area compared to the present distribution. With these results, we discussed recommendations for strategic management including opportunities for protected area expansion, potential habitat corridors, and reintroduction areas for protecting the species’ metapopulation.
KEY WORDS: Ecological Modeling, Species Distribution Modeling, Black Shama, Climate
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