EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF PROBABILITY-BASED MODELING FOR URBAN FLOODS IN MANDAUE CITY, PHILIPPINES

With the increasing frequency of urban floods caused by heavy precipitation in the Philippines, flood mitigation strategies to improve the city’s resilience must be rigorously pursued. Recent advances in digital technology, such as probability-based modeling, have provided an effective means to identify areas in which such strategies should be implemented. This paper gives a comprehensive analysis of the potential of probability-based modeling to help anticipate urban floods in Mandaue City, Philippines using probability density function (PDF). PDF is a statistical technique used to model the probability of an event occurring based on previous data. In this study, we use GIS by combining different layers containing flooding risk factors such as elevation and land use with existing historical data on flood events in the area. This combination can then be used to create a PDF that can show the probability of an urban flood occurring at various locations, which can allow for informed decision making around flood risk management. The results of this study seeks to inform stakeholders in order to create specific strategies for urban environments that could be used to reduce flooding risks and more importantly, offers a framework for other cities to apply probability-based modeling to generate tailor-made strategies for flood resilience. © 2023 ACRS. All Rights Reserved.