Exploring the Voting Behavior of the Cebuano Electorate by Nelia S. Ereno and Mae Claire G. Jabines
Abstract
An essential tool for measuring the exercise of democracy is through looking into the factors considered by voters in choosing a candidate. This study presents how demographic factors such as age bracket, sex, educational attainment, and salary bracket affect the preferences of voters. In the process, this study also illustrates how culture and socialization affect political choices. A survey with a stratified random sampling technique was conducted across Cebu province with 606 registered voters. The survey quantitatively exhibits the patterns of the voting behavior of Cebuano electorates in the 2016 Presidential and Vice Presidential elections. It identifies elements that influenced the electorates’ preference towards a certain candidate. Using the multivariate canonical correlation analysis, the study revealed that the demographic profiles of the respondents were significantly correlated with their preferred characteristics of a presidentiable and vice presidentiable. The characteristic preference of the Cebuano voters for president and the vice president differs across age bracket, sex, educational attainment, and salary bracket. The strength of such a relationship can be predicted using the model for the presidentiable while for the vice presidentiable. Using the multivariate correspondence analysis, the study depicts through two-dimensional perceptual mapping the preferred attributes of the Cebuano voters on the presidentiable/vice presidentiable concerning age bracket, gender, educational attainment, and salary bracket. Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were also facilitated to validate and supplement the results of the survey. It probed into the generational differences in how younger respondents identified more qualities of a leader compared to fewer qualities identified by older respondents. The FGD results give further elaboration and explanation of how Cebuano political culture and socialization matters in choosing the right candidate.
An essential tool for measuring the exercise of democracy is through looking into the factors considered by voters in choosing a candidate. This study presents how demographic factors such as age bracket, sex, educational attainment and economic status affect the preferences of voters. In the process, this study also illustrates how culture and socialization affect political choices. A survey with stratified random sampling technique was conducted across Cebu province with 606 registered voters. The survey quantitatively exhibits the patterns of the voting behavior of Cebuano electorates in the 2016 Presidential and Vice Presidential election. It identifies elements that influenced the electorates’ preference towards a certain candidate, which are ranked in this particular order: 1. Has a heart for the poor and needy; 2. Can provide job opportunities; 3. Has a “pleasing personality” 4. Has good platform of government; and 5. No involvement in corrupt practices. Thus, a standard and ideal traits of candidate preferred by Cebuanos was cultivated. Using the multivariate canonical correlation analysis, the study revealed that the demographic profiles of the respondents were significantly correlated with their preferred characteristics of a presidentiable and vice presidentiable. That is, the characteristic preference of the Cebuano voters of a president and vice president are different across age bracket, sex, educational attainment and economic status. The strength of such relationship can be predicted using the model for the presidentiable while the model for the vice presidentiable. Using the multivariate correspondence analysis, the study depicts through two-dimensional perceptual mapping the preferred attributes of the Cebuano voters on the presidentiable/vice presidentiable with respect to age bracket, sex, educational attainment and economic status. Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were also facilitated to validate and supplement the results of the survey. This qualitative methodology broadens and gives detailed explanations of the respondents’ preferences. It probed into the generational differences on how younger respondents identifying more qualities of a leader compared to fewer qualities identified by older respondents. The FGD results give further elaboration and explanation to how Cebuano political culture and socialization matters in choosing the right candidate.
Keywords: canonical correlation, perceptual mapping, multivariate models, voting preferences, presidential election